Wizards sign Nick Young to Qualifying Offer
Posted: December 19, 2011 Filed under: Uncategorized Leave a comment »
Michael Lee of the Washington Post has reported that Nick Young has accepted a one year, 3.7 million dollar qualifying offer from the Washington Wizards. Young was a restricted free agent, meaning the Wizards had the right to match any offer Young would sign. Now that Young has accepted this contract he can play out the year with the Wizards then become a completely free, unrestricted free agent in the summer.
I am so happy with this development. The only Wizards player that has been given a long-term contract under the Ted Leonsis regime is Andray Blatche. I’m fairly certain most people agree that this was an ill-advised, regrettable decision. History did not repeat itself in the teams dealing with Nick Young, yet.
The record is clear that I do not think very highly of Nick Young as a productive, valuable NBA player. Every facet of his game, other than scoring, is among the worst at his position. Even his scoring ability is average. I don’t mind resigning him for this season because we aren’t likely to be good anyway. In fact it would be in our best interests to be as bad as we can be for one more year in hopes of landing another high draft choice in a relatively loaded 2012 draft. I’m confident Nick Young will help lead the team to the bottom, as he has every year of his career.
The last facet of this deal that makes me very happy is the Wizards lose the right to match any offer Young receives in the summer. This is because, while I believe management has done a reasonably good job running the organization recently, I have seen them make some terrible decisions in the not so distant past. Not being able to match helps protect Ernie Grunfeld from himself. Now, the team and Nick Young could still come to a long-term agreement but I am not sure how happy he is that the Wizards showed him so little love this off-season. I’m hoping he bolts and is replaced by Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Nick Young: An Assessment
Posted: November 29, 2011 Filed under: Uncategorized Leave a comment »NBA Free Agency 2011 is quickly approaching and will pass just as fast. The Washington Wizards will have a tremendous amount of cap room to work with but I’m hoping they save that just a few more months for the summer of 2012. They should use that money to make a run at Dwight Howard or Chris Paul (and trade John Wall afterwards).
As for right now the Washington Wizards primary free agency decisions will revolve around what to do with restricted free agent SG Nick Young. Washington has already given new contracts to former “backups on a mediocre team, now starters for a terrible team” in Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee. The Wizards made several mistakes in striving for mediocrity by signing former stars Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison to big contracts. They have since realized those series of payroll decisions were not the way to go. They have repeated the very same process but instead of signing productive stars to lucrative and long deals, it is their much less talented and less productive backups receiving new deals. The team has already extended the talented but not-at-all productive Blatche and it looks like they will do the same for Nick Young.
I believe we should forget about Nick Young and let him walk to anyone who will pay him. This is because no matter who pays him and how much, he will not be worth the money. He just doesn’t do anything productive that wins games for a basketball team. The Wizards have been a consistently bad team for the past several years. Bad teams are bad because they employ and give playing minutes to unproductive players. For the Wizards Nick young is one of those players, despite what his scoring average might tell you. Let’s compare Young to the average shooting guard to see how he stacks up.
As you can see Nick Young is below average (in several cases significantly below) in almost every category as a shooting guard in the NBA. He is absolutely terrible with respect to rebounding, causing turnovers, and passing the ball. He is essentially average with respect to making the shots he takes, avoiding turnovers, and committing personal fouls.
Here is Nick Young in a nutshell: He is average at making shots but is terrible at almost everything else. He takes a large amount of shots so his scoring average and therefore his perceived offensive contribution is very overstated. He’s a “chucker,” nothing more. If he’s in the game and not making shots, he’s contributing nothing to your team. In fact, he is hurting your team in many ways.
Nick Young is rated below average by every major player rating system. He is rated below average according to “Win Shares” with a score of .065 WS/48minutes (Average = .100 Win Shares per 48 minutes). David Berri’s “Wins Produced” system rates him far below average with a score of -.024 WP/48minutes (Average = .100 Wins Produced per 48 minutes). John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (which favors players who take a lot of shots) even rates him below average (Average = 15.0) with a score of 14.51.
Nick Young is a below average player. Almost every aspect of his game is below average. Every significant rating system agrees with this assessment. He is only significantly above average with respect to taking shots. Guess what? Finding a shooting guard who takes a large volume of shots is about the easiest thing to accomplish as an NBA general manager. In fact, the Wizards already have such a player, who could easily do everything Nick Young does, on their bench in Jordan Crawford. Crawford is much younger and is still on his rookie contract, therefore much cheaper. Why not just give Crawford Nick Young’s minutes and save a boatload of money? In fact this is my argument for not re-signing Young. Crawford is just as good, younger, and much cheaper. Therefore there is no need to re-sign Young. Seems like common sense to me.
The Wizards have been a below average team for the past few seasons. This is because they have employed and given substantial minutes to players who are not as good as their peers. Poor team records result from employing players who are not productive, this is not a hard concept. We should look identify these poorly producing players and replace them with better options. For the Wizards it is clear Nick Young is a player who needs to be replaced, not resigned (for any amount of money).
Wizards Pre-draft rumors
Posted: June 23, 2011 Filed under: NBA Draft Leave a comment »There have been a lot of rumors surrounding the top of the draft. Namely that the Utah Jazz, Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Cleveland Cavaliers will all select Enes Kanter if he’s available at their selection. Also, accoring to DraftExpress, “Vesely appears to have received assurances from the Wizards that he’s indeed the pick, according to reports from NBA teams who have spoken with his camp.” The Wizards are set now too? So all of these teams who have looked hard at trades for weeks are all of a sudden settled?
I’m not buying it. Not entirely.
That’s not to say Utah/Cleveland won’t take Kanter over Knight/Valanciunas (who they have been slated to select for a while). It doesn’t mean Washington won’t end up staying in their spot and selecting Vesely at six. What I’m saying is what is the rationale behind appearing so strongly entrenched in selecting these players now? Why tell anyone? I think the reason is because Utah/Cleveland want to move down and Washington wants to move up. Both sides are trying to make it seem as if they not desperate make a move in order to produce a more beneficial trade environment for their teams. This makes sense but it seems really obvious to me that this is what is happening. Many people are taking these teams at face value when it seems more than suspicious.
Edit: It turned out I was entirely wrong on this. I think it had more to do with me being in denial of the Wizards personnel decisions. I’m really jealous of Utah’s draft. Although, I’m starting to warm up to the Wizards choices.
My Draft Board, 2011
Posted: June 23, 2011 Filed under: NBA Draft Leave a comment »For the record, I think large draft boards are a ridiculous activity. Why rank your top 100 players when maybe five of those will make a significant impact and five more will be good role players. The rest will be journeymen or roster filler. This happens every year. I feel uncomfortable even making a top 30 because on some level I think that gives the impression I think there are thirty players that are draftable (it just depends on your teams circumstances which players works best for you). I don’t think this. I think the majority of players drafted, not just this year but any year, won’t have a career worth writing about.
With that said I’m going to rank the players that I would be at least moderately happy (some level above indifference, at least) having on my team if I were an NBA GM. I’m not sure on a specific number, I’ll just go until I can’t find players I’d draft regardless of the circumstances.
1. Kyrie Irving, PG, Duke
Kyrie Irving is the best player in this draft. What are his NBA comparisons? A lot of people have suggested Chris Paul. I’m not entirely sold on this for a couple of reasons. First, Chris Paul is all-world amazing. When healthy, I think he is easily the best point guard in the NBA. Irving could end up being very good but being the best in the game is probably not going to happen. Another thing is that his college resume is short. He played most of his games before in-conference competition, which inflates his numbers a bit. Though, when he played he was no doubt outstanding.
What we know about Irving is that he has no major flaws and is an elite shooter. Elite shooters who have an assortment of other skills are much harder to find than draft guru’s lead you to believe.
Comparison: If his foot is healthy I think Irving could be more like a Detroit Pistons era Chauncey Billups. While not Chris Paul, is still damn good.
2. Enes Kanter, PF/C, Turkey
As short as Kyrie Irving’s body of work is, Kanter’s is even shorter. The NCAA ruled him ineligible last season, as such he was not allowed to compete with the Kentucky Wildcats. He also didn’t really have an opportunity to play anywhere, so he has been twiddling his thumbs for a while now.
He does have some things we can look at though. He played for Turkey in the FIBA U18 championships in 2009 and 2008, dominating the competition both times. He averaged over 18 points and 14 rebounds during both tournaments. Along with the U18 games, Kanter also took part in the 2010 Nike Hoop Summit against the best high school players in America, including Harrison Barnes, Terrence Jones, and Jared Sullinger. In that game he dominated, breaking Dirk Nowitzki’s points (33 points) record with 34 points (Video: HERE). So it’s not exactly conclusive but he has dominated when he has played.
Comparison: I’m comfortable saying he could end up being a Kevin Love type player (probably not as good, but similar styles).
3. Jonas Valanciunas, C, Latvia
Like Kanter, Valanciunas has performed very well in the FIBA U18 championships in 2009 and 2010. He has also played very well in the Euro league this past year. He is not as offensively skilled as Enes Kanter but is a very efficient finisher in the post. He is more known for his defense and rebounding, which has been compared to Joakim Noah. I like him because he is a legit center that produces in games. If he’s anything like Noah then he is worth selecting very high in this draft.
Comparison: Joakim Noah (possibly lesser version).
4. Derrick Williams, F, Arizona
I already made an entire post regarding my opinion on Derrick Williams, you can read it here.
Comparison: Rich man’s Antawn Jamison
5. Kenneth Faried, PF, Morehead State
Faried has an “elite” skill, that is his rebounding ability. In fact, Kenneth Faried ended his college career as the NCAA’s all time leading rebounder. I find it baffling to consider that he is by far the best in his class at an important basketball skill but he still is so underrated. Elite shooters like Klay Thompson, who has no other skills, are flying up draft boards. We need to consider other factors in the game other than scoring. When you consider how hard he plays, how good his character is, and how he projects to be at least good defender, you have to consider him as a very solid selection.
Comparison: A DeJuan Blair/Trevor Booker type but better. A defender/rebounder role player that all teams need.
There you have it, the five players I’m comfortable going out on a limb and writing paragraphs about how they should be good in the NBA. Here are five more players I’m intrigued by but am not yet comfortable completely backing them up yet. I still would be happy or at least content if they ended up on my Wizards…
6. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Diego State (Comp: Poor man’s Gerald Wallace maybe?)
7. Alec Burks, SG, Colorado (Comp: Better version of John Salmons)
8. Tobias Harris, SF, Tennessee (Comp: Shane Battier)
9. Markieff Morris, PF, Kansas (Comp: Rasheed Wallace)
10. Jordan Williams, PF, Maryland (Comp: Sean May if he hadn’t gotten injured so much.)
There you have it, ten guys I am at least intrigued by in this draft. I really stretched it too, I don’t think I could have gone longer than ten. If I didn’t list someone above it doesn’t mean I think they will be bad, just that the pluses of a certain player may not outweigh the negatives. I’m also considering their projected draft positions as well. Jordan Williams in the top 5 doesn’t interest me as much as late first.
Here are five guys I would really stay away from, especially when considering their projected draft position. I would be upset if any of these players became a Washington Wizard, regardless of how they were acquired.
1. Jan Vesely (Joe Alexander/Andrei Kirilenko with no skills)
2. Klay Thompson (Marco Belinelli, shooter and nothing else. Plays much worse against good competition.)
3. Donatas Motiejunas (Poor man’s Andrea Bargnani…ouch. Not interested)
4. Jordan Hamilton (Poor man’s Stephen Jackson. Head case who takes terrible shot after terrible shot.)
5. There is not actually five, but I really don’t like the four above at all.
Derrick Williams – How will he transition?
Posted: June 21, 2011 Filed under: NBA Draft 2 Comments »I’ve heard it several times during coverage of this years NBA draft that Derrick Williams is an elite rebounder. This really baffles me because it is something that is very easily verifiable. You look up his statistics under the category of rebounding and it’s right there in front of you. It is important to put his numbers in context by accounting for pace, minutes played, level of competition, etc. Derrick Williams just isn’t an elite rebounder, he’s just a good one.
Adjusting for pace and minutes played Derrick Williams averaged 10.9 rebounds per 40 minutes, good for eighth in this draft class. When we look at rebounding rate, which I think is a better measure, Williams ranks 123rd nationally in offensive rebound rate and 113th in defensive rebound rate. So Derrick Williams was an average, maybe slightly above average, rebounder at the college level.
It really doesn’t seem like a big deal that Williams is only an average rebounder at the college level when you consider his ability as a scorer. During his sophomore season Derrick Williams was insanely efficient – he was fourth in the nation in true shooting percentage (69%!). When you consider his high usage and high true shooting percentage I think it is fair to say that Williams was the most elite scorer in college basketball last season.
However, a few things bother me about Derrick Williams transition to the NBA. Derrick Williams thinks he will be a small forward at the NBA level, most scouts think he is best utilized at the power forward position. This worries me and ESPN’s Chad Ford. This is because transitioning from a college PF to an NBA SF doesn’t translate as easily as other positions. Other players who have made this same transition – Wesley Johnson, Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Marvin Williams, and Carmelo Anthony have seen their rebounding, as well as other non-scoring numbers, drop considerably from college to the NBA. I predict a similar thing happening to Derrick Williams if he tries to play on the wing in the NBA. He is already non exceptional as a defender and passer, if he becomes a lesser rebounder his production will be entirely tied to his scoring ability.
But this is still okay because Derrick Williams was the best, most efficient scorer in the college game, right? I’m a little wary. Statistically he was the nations best scorer. He made an insane 60% of his two point shots and an even more incredible 57% of his three pointers. He also got to the line over eleven times per 40 minutes. This production is due to come down just by the simple fact that NBA defenses are better. But this scoring production was so astronomical it has to be at least a minor fluke. I still think Williams will be a very, very good scorer in the NBA but I don’t think he’ll match his college production. And when his production rests almost entirely on that elite scoring, this worries me.
While I believe Derrick Williams will be a good NBA player and arguably worthy of the second overall selection, I am not as certain of his future stardom as others. I have my doubts about his abilities transitioning evenly from the college level to the pro’s. In my view Williams should become something like a more talented, efficient, and aggressive Antawn Jamison. In essence, a rich mans Antawn Jamison. That’s not too bad, Jamison made a few all-star teams.
Jan Vesely – My Draft Nightmare, 2011
Posted: June 21, 2011 Filed under: NBA Draft, Washington Wizards 1 Comment »This is the first NBA draft in a while where there is only one realistic scenario that would make me less optimistic and happy about being a Wizards fan than I was going into the draft. Literally every other rumored scenario makes me at least a little happy and enthused. Unfortunately for me, and for Wizards fans everywhere, this scenario seems to be the most likely outcome for the sixth pick on Thursday night. What I’m talking about is if the Washington Wizards select Partizan combo forward Jan Vesely.
I say this because the focus of his scouting report by almost every source is all that is wrong with player evaluation in the NBA. The reason is his scouting report relies entirely on his perceived level of elite athleticism. Athleticism is fine, but only when it gets you something. There have been plenty of ridiculously athletic players through the years who give you nearly nothing on the court (See: Nick Young). There have also been plenty of not exceptionally athletic players that give you everything on the court (See: Kevin Love). Athleticism can help a player produce on the court but they must have basketball skills to go with that athleticism. I’m pretty sure Kevin Durant rated as one of the worst athletes in his draft, but man does he have skills. The question that Ty Willihnganz asked over at his blog The Courtside Analyst still needs answering, “When will people learn that athleticism wins track meets, basketball skills win basketball games?”
The top three traits Chad Ford has under Jan Vesely’s draft profile on ESPN are “Leaping,” “Size,” and “Motor.” All of these things are physical measurable’s. When we look at his statistics you see that he is a poor rebounder, terrible shooter (especially from the free throw line), he isn’t a passer. I just don’t see any real on the court production by Vesely. All I hear is that he gets minutes playing at a high level in Europe and has elite athleticism. None of this necessarily means anything on the court. You don’t get extra point for fancy dunks and highlight reel plays. At 21, he is also two years older than other options in Enes Kanter, Jonas Valanciunas, Alec Burks, and Kawhi Leonard. Age should be taken into consideration, according to this study.
Who is my player comparison for Jan Vesely? Joe Alexander. That doesn’t excite me in any way. Joe’s an athletic freak, but he couldn’t actually play the game. His best case scenario is probably a Thad Young type.
Unfortunately, as of Tuesday, June 21st, NBADraft.net and DraftExpress.net have the Wizards selecting Jan Vesely at 6. ESPN also says that if Vesely falls to sixth then Washington will select him.
P.S. I don’t always agree with John Hollinger but for whatever it’s worth his Player Rater agrees with me.
P.P.S. Jan Vesely looks like Jesse Eisenberg.
UPDATE: ESPN’s Chad Ford has reported that the Wizards may be trying to trade up with the Cavaliers (have also heard rumors about trading with the Jazz). If they manage to trade up and draft Enes Kanter I will be elated. It’ll be possibly my happiest Wizards fandom moment ever.
Andray Blatche…Is Terrible
Posted: January 29, 2011 Filed under: NBA, Washington Wizards 1 Comment »I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. The amount of Wizards fans that believe Andray Blatche is a good player astounds me. I don’t understand how anyone can watch a Wizards game and come to this conclusion. Just from watching the games you can see he’s a horrendous basketball player. He makes a mistake nearly every time he touches the ball. I think it’s self evident but I guess I have to provide conclusive evidence that Blatche has no business being a starting power forward in the NBA. This will be easy.
Now, how “good” someone is at some activity is relative. Andray Blatche is obviously a good basketball player relative to the average person. He would beat me pretty handily in a game of one on one. But if we’re talking about whether he is “good” in terms of being a starting power forward for the Washington Wizards then we should compare him to other starting power forwards. Unfortunately, the database I’m going to use for this write up (hoopdata.com) doesn’t allow me to organize players by games started. So my expanded definition is power forwards who are heavily depended on by their teams (20+ games played, 25+ minutes per game). I think this is reasonable and still will show my point that Blatche shouldn’t be considered good (better than average) relative to this group of players. Many times it’s easy to think of a player as good in the abstract sense because not everyone realizes just how many quality players there are in the NBA. Once you just see his name among his competition then I’m confident you’ll realize where he ranks, if not I’ve provided further evidence of his terrible production.
Here is the list of players Blatche is being compared to…
Al Harrington, Amare Stoudemire, Amir Johnson, Anderson Varejao, Antawn Jamison, Blake Griffin, Boris Diaw, Carl Landry, Carlos Boozer, Charlie Villanueva, Chris Bosh, David West, DeMarcus Cousins, Dirk Nowitzki, Elton Brand, Glen Davis, Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, Kevin Love, Kris Humphries, Lamar Odom, LaMarcus Aldridge, Luis Scola, Marcus Camby, Michael Beasley, Pau Gasol, Paul Millsap, Rashard Lewis, Serge Ibaka, Zach Randolph.
That’s 30 players who have played 25 minutes per game in 20 or more games this season. Including Andray Blatche we get to 31 players. There are 30 starting power forward spots in the NBA. This is a close enough approximation for me.
Is Andray Blatche above average for this group? An easy personal test is if you can find sixteen players on that list that you would trade Blatche for. If you can then he is by your own evaluation process (whatever that may be) a below average player. My whole point of this post is to prove to you he is a below average big man. So if you find yourself already realizing this then you really don’t need to read further. Of this list there are three, maybe four players I wouldn’t trade Blatche for. So in my personal eyeball rankings/opinion he’s around ~26th/31. If you threw in some Olive Garden bread sticks, cash and a few second round picks then he’s yours regardless of who you give me. But that’s just me. I’m pretty confident almost everyone’s eyeball rankings will have him below average even if they didn’t consider him that in the abstract sense before reading this.
Let’s take a closer look at the numbers. When we look at his true shooting percentage (This takes into account three’s and free throws. It demonstrates his ability to make the shots he takes, a really important part of winning a basketball game) his 47.9% ranks a horrendous 29th out of 31. The average true shooting percentage is 55.2%. Clearly, Blatche is far below average. This season is the lowest TS% Blatche has had since his rookie year. So you might be saying he’s just having a bad year. If we took his career best season (51.9%, last year) he is still far below average. So Dray isn’t “good” at making shots this season and has never once been above average (or even close to average) at this in his career. This is because he takes a lot of long jump shots and they very rarely go in. He is actually below average in FG% from all distances on the floor.
Making shots is a very important part of winning basketball but it’s not the only component. You also need to gain possession of the basketball and avoid losing possession. Otherwise known as rebounding, avoiding turnovers, and forcing turnovers. Blatche’s rebound rate of 13.4 ranks 21st/31, again significantly below average (average =14.9). Rebound rate is defined as the percentage of total rebounds grabbed by a player during his time on the court, just so you know. Blatche ranks 29th/31 in turnover rate, as in the third worst. His turnover rate is 12.99 (average = 10.32) so he is far below average. Turnover rate is defined as the percent of a players possessions that end in a turnover, just so you know. Forcing turnovers helps balance out this discrepancy. He is actually second best in the group in this department, so it helps a little but doesn’t bring him back to average here in terms of possession of the basketball.
He ranks 17th/31 in blocked shots per game, again below average. His assist rate (percentage of possessions used that end in an assist) is 23rd/31, way below average again. His PER is 14.22, ranking 26th/31 – way below average. His win score is also 26th/31 – way below average. His win shares per 48 minutes is a horrendously bad .025 (average is .100), again way way way below average.
I mean I could go on, the clearly evident theme here is that Andray Blatche is a far below average player across the board. He is not a good basketball player, there is simply no evidence to back that statement up. He has never really produced at a high level for an extended period of time in the past either. You might say he’s young and will improve but the soonest he can redeem himself is next season, he will be 25. At some point you have become the player you’re going to be and Blatche is close to that point, if not there already. I haven’t said much about his individual defense but I don’t think anyone actually believe’s he’s a good defender. The last thing to consider is that he has played the most minutes on the Wizards and therefore has had the most impact on their record, they are 13-32.
Give me evidence that suggests Andray Blatche is a good player, I beg you.
NBA Season Preview
Posted: October 22, 2010 Filed under: NBA 3 Comments »ESPN has recently published their NBA Season Preview. They poll their collection of basketball “experts” to see how they expect the season to turn out. They never actually do a follow up on this to see if anyone is ever correct but I think it might be incorporated into this years Stat Geek Smackdown. In order to participate in the “smackdown” I needed to come up with my own predictions. Here they are…
Western Conference Surprise Team:
Golden State Warriors – Everything about this team has changed. They have a new ownership group. They have a new coach. They even have nice looking new uniforms. They have added several tough new players (which they needed badly) including David Lee, Dorrell Wright, Lou Amundson, and Jeff Adrian. They will also basically add Andris Biedrins and Brandan Wright returning from injuries. That’s a huge upgrade to a team that was the worst team ever in rebounding last season. Also I expect Steph Curry to improve on his nearly Rookie-Of-The-Year campaign. The two biggest issues are can Monta Ellis not self destruct again and how good will they be on defense? I think they will challenge teams like the Rockets and Suns for the last play-off spot in the west. ESPN’s experts unanimously disagree with me, we will find out.
Eastern Conference Surprise Team:
Cleveland Cavaliers – I predict them to win 36 games. Obviously, this is not normally very good. But I think the East will be very top heavy this year. To me, 36 wins puts them in contention for that last play-off spot. I know they lost LeBron James but they won 60+ games the last two seasons. A 25ish game subtraction seems like a fair assumption for the loss of James. They still have a lot of good players up and down their roster. I think Ramon Sessions can get his career back on track now that he’s out of Minny. And maybe JJ Hickson improves as well. They should challenge the Knicks and Bobcats for the last few play off spots.
Eastern Conference Finals -
Miami Heat defeat Orlando Magic in 7
Western Conference Finals -
Los Angeles Lakers defeat San Antonio Spurs in 6
2011 NBA Finals
Miami Heat defeat Los Angeles Lakers in 7
2010-2011 Media Awards
MVP
Who will win it? Probably Kevin Durant. He will most likely lead the NBA in scoring again as well as lead the OKC Thunder to 50ish wins. He is a great player and I won’t gripe if he does indeed take home the award.
Who will deserve it? Probably LeBron James or Dwight Howard. While James is a scorer he is viewed by the media as overly passive. They think the guy who is MVP is the one who scores the most. Sometimes this is true (like James last year) but they really underrate nearly every other facet of the game in which both James and Howard also excel. Both will probably lead their teams to the two best regular season records in the league.
Rookie Of The Year
Who will win it? This is probably 50-50 between Blake Griffin and John Wall. However, this should not be close at all. Not just Griffin against Wall but Griffin against anyone. Blake Griffin is an absolute monster. He’s Carlos Boozer with Dwight Howards athleticism on steroids. He’ll probably shoot close to 60%, score 20 PPG, and pull down 12+ rebounds. He is just too good. John Wall will lead the Wizards well as a point guard in most games. He has shown in the pre-season he is a selfless player who sets up his team mates. He is also nasty in the passing lanes. However, something I like to do here that no one else does is look at the whole picture. Wall has always been and still appears to be an awful shooter. He has no jump shot at all. He still turns the ball over like a mad man. And surprisingly he has been a terrible rebounder in the pre season. If his pre season rebounding numbers translate to regular season he will be among the worst at his position (in the area of small unathletic PGs like Aaron Brooks, Daniel Gibson, and DJ Augustin). There’s no excuse for him to be such a poor rebounder. As a result of his short comings I expect the Wizards to be worse than most of the media do.
Who will deserve it? Like I said, Blake Griffin hands down.
Most Improved Player
Who will win it? The winner of this award almost never actually deserves it. It usually goes to who increases their minutes the most and gets more opportunity, not who actually improves. If they get more minutes and use those minutes to score a ton of points then they will probably win the award regardless of how much they actually improve (see Aaron Brooks, 2010). So who will get more minutes to shoot a ton of shots and therefore score more points? I’m going with Michael Beasley. I don’t think they will hold him back in Minny and he will probably score around 20 a game. Even if he still doesn’t rebound, play defense, or score efficiently. He’s going to put up points.
Who will deserve it? This one is tough. I like both James Harden and JaVale McGee’s chances. They’re both young and in really good situations. Harden’s game has always been solid but he needs to step it up and get more minutes. McGee will start this year and has played really well in summer league and in the pre season.
6th Man
Who will win it? Usually the scoring guard coming off the bench for a winning team (Terry, Ginobili, Crawford). This is why I think James Harden has a shot. I would have said Mike Miller but he hurt his finger pretty bad apparently. Udonis Haslem will be big off the Heat bench as well.
Who will deserve it? I’m not sure, probably Harden or Haslem. This is hard to predict because I don’t know who will be a bench player. Normally I’d go with Manu Ginobili all the way but he’s been starting. Odom has also been starting in Bynum’s absense.
Well, what are the chances any of this is correct? 50%? That’s probably still better than mainstream, or at least I hope.
LeDecision 2010
Posted: July 7, 2010 Filed under: NBA 10 Comments »Tomorrow, Thursday evening at 9 PM on ESPN, LeBron James will name the team he has chosen to play for over the next 3 to 6 years. Since July 1st LeBron has been given presentations by the six teams he is considering – the Nets, Knicks, Heat, Clippers, Bulls, and his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers.
These teams have made moves in advance of his decision in an effort to sway him their way. The Knicks feel they have improved their chances after signing Amare Stoudemire to a 5 year ~100 million dollar deal. The Heat have made two huge moves Wednesday in securing Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to max contracts. The Chicago Bulls and New Jersey Nets will probably attempt to counter these moves by signing All Star PF’s Carlos Boozer or David Lee. The Clippers are…the Clippers (let’s just ignore them for now). So teams are going all out in their efforts to sign LeBron James. They should, he’s the leagues best player.
Which team would be LeBron’s best option? There are many factors that he is considering, I’m sure. There are factors like weather, franchise prestige, marketing opportunities, coach, owner, as well as home town loyalty. I really can’t measure any of these factors very well.
The one factor I feel I can measure reasonably well is the production of the supporting cast he can expect based on what we know now. I will start with the only team he’s ever known – the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have a few advantages over other teams. Their biggest advantage is that the Cleveland area has been LeBron James home his entire life. That is a pretty significant advantage in my opinion. I think the hiring of Byron Scott was a smart choice. He has coached teams to the NBA finals before and he is considered a “players coach.” Management has also showed in the past that they are willing to make moves in an effort to build a team around LeBron.
The team they have put together is pretty good. With LeBron James this team should consistently win at least 60 games every year. So, with Cleveland, James should have a chance at winning the championship. The problem with this roster is that it is a little too dependent on LeBron. Most of their eggs are in one basket. They don’t have any players other than LeBron that are .200 producers that play a lot of minutes. Whether LeBron returns or not, I expect this roster to be pretty different next season.
From a roster standpoint, I don’t think any team can match what Chicago offers. They have one very above average player in Joakim Noah and assuredly will add another in Carlos Boozer. This chart might understate how good their roster can be. Noah and Rose struggled with injuries last year and are better when healthy. They are also both young and probably will improve. James Johnson and Taj Gibson (Though, Taj Gibson is 25 I think) also have a chance to improve. LeBron won’t play any PF in Chicago, making him better. They will also have enough cap room to maybe sign a shooter like Ray Allen, JJ Redick, or Mike Miller. I don’t know much about the coach, he is defense oriented. LeBron could like that but is it much different than Mike Brown?
I think the chart understates the ability of this roster as well. Lopez and Harris had down years relative to what they did in the previous season. Lopez, Williams, and Lee are also very young and should improve. LeBron will likely not play any PF for NJ as well. NJ seems like the most likely landing spot for Lee at this point, considering the Bulls just signed Carlos Boozer. Lee will not have to play center, which is huge. Avery Johnson is a very good coach. Their owner is a global billionaire in Prokhorov and hip hop superstar in Jay Z. In two years they will move out of the small market of Newark into the much bigger Brooklyn. The Nets also have the third pick in the draft in Derrick Favors. Based on his college performance and the fact that he’s just turning 19, I think he should end up becoming pretty good. I don’t know what the Nets chances are but they have a very enticing situation. Edit: I forgot to add the Nets also added a rookie who should turn out to be very productive in Damion James from Texas.
The Miami Heat do not have many players on their roster. If they want both Bosh and James, they will probably have to trade Michael Beasley. Even so, with these four players they are projected to have 55 wins already. They will probably have to add in around ten veteran free agents and rookies but this team should win something like 60+ games, definitely putting them in title contention. Bosh will probably not have to play center. They have a great owner in Arison and great GM in Riley. Their coach Spoelstra also seems to be a good young coach. The weather in Miami is delightful during the NBA season and it is a reasonably big market. I would be hesitant to join this team over Chicago or New Jersey however. Media “experts” will never give him his credit unless he “wins one on his own.” Even though no one ever does. I think he would get a bigger legacy boost from NJ or Chicago.
Last and definitively least (in terms of roster) in my opinion is the New York Knicks. They just signed Amare to a max deal he isn’t worth. While Gallo definitely did not play all his minutes at PF last season as the chart suggests, he is still not a great player at this point. He is about an average SF in a regular NBA system, in D’Antoni’s system he is possibly a PF. I don’t see this roster having anywhere close to the potential of the others. New York is by far the biggest market. They have an owner that will spend, spend, and spend some more. They also have a player friendly coach who should be the most fun to play for. But in terms of the players on the team, NY is the worst option. I think most people might know this already. If LeBron chooses NY it will be more clear that he is more about his brand than winning championships. Edit: I’m definitely underselling the Knicks a little bit here because they have a lot of available minutes. Still, the Knicks do not look as promising as any other team. With a full roster NY will probably win 50-55 games.
If I were LeBron (and all I considered was the roster of the team) my list would go in this order – Chicago, New Jersey, Miami, Cleveland, and then New York. With Chicago signing Boozer and Miami building the team they can, I don’t think LeBron can afford to choose New York. He just won’t be able to compete for a championship. Cleveland is okay but they need to make changes.
From all the rumors I’ve heard it seems like his list goes the opposite direction.
NBA News/Rumors
Posted: July 2, 2010 Filed under: NBA Leave a comment »July 2nd, 2010
I find it interesting that average NBA fans have more sense than most NBA decision makers and the national media. An overwhelming plurality saying they’d rather have David Lee at 75 million than Amare Stoudemire at 100 million, or even Boozer at 85 million. I wonder what flavor Kool-Aid NBA front offices are drinking.
Uh-oh: RT @ChiTribuneLive: CSN (Comcast Sports Chicago) has confirmed Wade and Bosh are both at agent Henry Thomas’s office with Bulls…
Welcome Steve Blake! He super dope!!!
With Lakers agreeing to terms with Blake, would certainly seem to eliminate Mike Miller from coming unless Wiz somehow agreed to s/t..
chadfordinsider
Here’s the link to the latest on DWade-Bulls story. Link.
Steve Blake’s agent confirms four-year, $16 million deal with the Lakers. Link.
- (Does this take them out of the running for Mike Miller? I’d assume it does.)
Stoudemire’s Bird Rights were renounced by Suns, so he can’t be involved in S&Ts. Also can’t get more than what Knicks offering.
Wade, Chicago meeting for second time on Friday as Wade becomes further intrigued with Bulls — and possible LBJ partnership. link.
Imma start a website called What little do they know.com..l2ms
Bosh meeting finished after 2 hours, 40 minutes. “I always feel like a kid on Christmas,” he said. “You should have seen me in there.”
That’s big RT @IraHeatBeat Potentially staggering news, D Wade is meeting again tonight with Bulls, likely in the presence of his agent.
